Last night I tweeted (probably a number of times) about how fed up I was of the AV debate. It’s got to that point where, like in last year’s election, I’ve heard all of the arguments in a multitude of different tellings and all that’s happening now is the analogies are getting far worse. I had planned not to blog about it again until after the vote, but a couple of things have happened today that made me interested (not in the AV debate, but in AV in general).
This morning YouGov posted their most recent poll results which included a full AV voting intention. This would have been worth a glance anyway, but this morning Joanne Cash (@CashJoanne) tweeted the following:
My initial response was “my twitterfeed would imply that isn’t true,” which it isn’t – but then of the 500-odd I follow, the vast majority are good old right-wingers. Or are they? With Joanne’s question in mind, the second preferences of voters suddenly became quite interesting to look at.
My estimations prior to this were that Conservative voters, if they were to have a second preference, would probably put it with UKIP as the only other right-wing party on the list. This is judging the political positioning of each party, based on their economic policy. UKIP offer much closer to economic liberalism and laissez-faire economics than any other party (more so, of course than the Conservative Party). Now, I know economics are not the only reason someone votes for a party, but that party’s agenda stems, almost entirely, from their economic disposition (with the obvious exception). It was my assumption, therefore, that Conservative second preference would be largely directed at UKIP.
As it turns out second preference Conservative votes went as follows: 39% to the Liberal Democrats, 27% to UKIP, 6% to the Greens, 5% to Labour, 3% to the BNP, with 17% not filling in a second preference. The only party which had a larger percentage of voters so sure of their first preference, was Labour with 19% refusing to give a second preference. This leaves just over a quarter of Conservative voters choosing a right-wing party as their second preference.
It makes you wonder why these people have chosen to vote Conservative in the first place? 6% of Tory voters would switch to the Greens on second preference? How the bloody hell is that possible? I mean, really. Have they read their manifesto? How can you go from a party that encourages aspiration and success, to a party that believes all of life’s problems are the fault of the rich? It’s completely beyond me. 39% switch to the Lib Dems? From the (ideologically) low tax and pro-business Tories to the high(er) tax and tax-on-business party? 39% made the switch on second preference! It really does make you wonder why these people vote Conservative in the first place.
The economic left of this country is split between many varying degrees of socialism: Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and Respect all offer this variation, and the BNP oppose economic liberalism and laissez-faire economics. If you have right-wing economic views, you’ve got one of two choices when you vote. The lefties have far more choice. But does that mean the country is centre-left in general?? UKIP pick up 20% of second preferences across the board, which has already got Michael Heaver’s socks dancing up and down, but it doesn’t really do the right-wing any favours in terms of mass support.
The voting intention is soft at the moment anyway because the word ‘cuts’ hasn’t left a news cycle for about six months, and it will be a different state of affairs in four years time. Yet how might things change and will it be for the right reason?
Looking at the YouGov AV data shows that only half of Conservative voters are ideologically right-wing (because their second preferences went for “No preference given” or “UKIP”), this is compared to roughly 80% of Labour voters being ideologically left-wing (only 21% of their second preferences go to UKIP/Tories). Perhaps Joanne’s dinner party was right and the country is centre-left now. Based on the YouGov evidence of voting intention, it would be impossible to argue that the majority of the country was ideologically right. Which for for someone on the right, is a rather scary thought.
